The TGR Commodity Market Trend Timing Model

The TGR Commodity Trend Timing Model is based on price momentum of the commodity market. It also includes circuit breaker variables that correlate highly with commodities. These circuit breakers keep the model out of commodities when danger signals are present. Thus the model behaves quite differently from simplistic models based on price action alone. The model was designed in 2009 and presented in October 2009. The results are based on back tests of historical data.

Over 47 years the model gained 91% of the commodity market but was in commodities only 74% of the time up through its last trade close date. It had only one losing trade of less than 1% and won on 91% of all trades.

On a $10,000 original investment, my model grew it to $987,000 versus $1,098,000 for Buy & Hold as of December 2009. The commodity market has dropped by about 25% since my model's last sell date in September 2008 thus understating the model's actual performance relative to the commodity index. The gains of the TGR model do not include any interest income earned when the model was out of the market.

All the TGR Timing Models are broad trend and valuation models and are not designed for short term trading. They aid in the creation of long term balanced portfolios.

Commodity Price Index
TGR Trend Timing Model Vs. Buy and Hold (B&H)
1962 to 2009

I calculate my models based on the last trade closing date. At December 2009 the Commodity Index is at 12,100 and down from 16,573 in September 2008. Thus the true performance of the TGR model is understated by about 25% at this time.