The Gleason Report: Historical Performance of the Stock Market Timing Model

STOCK MARKET TIMING MODEL

REAL TIME PERFORMANCE VERIFIED BY USERS

Here are the facts.

Below is a list of the buy and sell dates of the Gleason Report's Stock Market Timing Model. The model beats buy and hold over all time periods and avoids all market crashes and severe downturns. The model is based on valuation of the stock market and not trend timing. I also have a trend timing model for stocks.

All trades prior to 1999 are calculated on historical data. From 1999 to year-end 2008, all results are real-time and verified. When out of the market the model is assumed to have earned 5% interest in cash.

Over thirty years, Buy & Hold grew $10,000 to $88,000. That's a 7.1% annual compound rate of return. The chart shows how savings are devastated by stock market crashes and periods of bad returns. Money market accounts returned 5.8% over the same period.

Over thirty years, The TGR Stock Model turned $10,000 into $661,000. That's a 15% annual compound rate of return and the model was in the market only 72% of the time. This shows the effect of compounding when losing months are eliminated.

Look at the table. The model makes profits even in severe bear markets like in 2001-2002 and 2008 forward.

Let's look at the results over the last ten years, since autumn of 1998. Assume the TGR model and Buy & Hold both started with $10,000. At year end 2008, the Buy & Hold investor has lost 10% as the S&P500 index fell from 1002 to 903 over ten years. TGR is up more than 300% over the same period. TGR avoided the down months of the two bear markets and was in stocks only 47% of the time.

The TGR stock model's buy and sell signals are provided real-time and are never retracted. Facts are facts and the performance of my models proves that those who say market timing doesn't work are totally wrong.

It's important to understand that my stock model is not a short term trading system. It signals when the market will be up or down for an extended period. It rarely makes short term trades but, when it does, those are usually very profitable.

Growth of $10,000: Buy & Hold vs. the TGR Stock Model