The TGR Stock Market Trend Timing Model

The TGR S&P500 Trend Timing Model buys and sells based on price momentum and other variables. The important thing to grasp is that the Trend Timing Model includes circuit breakers that will exit the market if a danger condition appears. It only buys if danger conditions that correlate highly with stock prices are not a risk factor. Thus, it uses more than price action to time the buy and sell points.

Below are the historical buy and sell dates going back to 1962. I've been using this model real time since 2008 and made it public in 2009.

The last sell date of the model was in December 2007. It's been in cash since then. It did not buy in 2009 because the circuit breaker risk variables kept it out. Considering the run up in stock prices since March 2009, this could be considered a negative for the model. However, the purpose of all my models are to avoid large losses and to win on almost all stock trades. The TGR Trend Timing Model seldom trades and wins on over 90% of trades. So, in exchange for the near certainty of winning, some trades are avoided.

The results below do not include any interest income for the months when out of the market. The model turned $10,000 into $226,000 versus $174,000 for Buy & Hold. In other words it outperforms by 30%. It is only in the market 59% of the time. It had one losing trade in 1965 of less than 1%.

The S&P500 stock index was at 1468 on the model's last trade date in December 2007. The market is 25% lower in December 2009 thus greatly understating the actual performance of the TGR Trend Stock Model relative to the index.

S&P500
TGR Trend Timing Model Vs. Buy and Hold (B&H)
1962 to 2009

I calculate my models based on the last trade closing date. At December 2009 the S&P500 Index is at 1100 and down from 1468 in December 2007. Thus the true performance of the TGR model is understated by about 25% at this time.